A review of studies conducted by McKinsey and the World Bank examines the economic impact of the pandemic on African economies and possible scenarios for the development of the economic crisis.
The factors that are set to have the biggest impact on the African economy are disruptions in global supply chains, a decline in demand for a wide range of African exports, a delay or significant reduction in foreign direct investment, and a collapse in oil and other commodity prices.
McKinsey analysts modeled four scenarios of how the prevalence of COVID-19 will impact African economic growth. Even in the most optimistic scenario, GDP growth in Africa will drop to 0.4% in 2020, and this scenario looks less likely every day. In all other scenarios, analysts predict that in 2020 Africa will experience an economic downturn, with GDP growth declining by 5-8 percentage points. Experts from the World Bank share the pessimism of their colleagues and predict that the continent will experience its first recession in 25 years.
The studies also provided proposed anti-crisis measures that African countries are recommended to pay priority attention to.
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